Economic Letter

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.

  • Inequality in the United States

    1997-03

    Brian Motley

    In recent months, there has been much public discussion of the continuing increase in income inequality in the U.S. (Weinberg 1996). Some commentators suggest that the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer, and those in the middle are getting nowhere.

  • Changes in Small Business Lending in the West

    1997-02

    Mark Levonian

    Over the past year, big banks have made a highly visible push into small business lending. Several large banks have been using new technology to reduce the cost of originating small business loans and speed the approval process.

  • Nobel Views on Inflation and Unemployment

    1997-01

    Carl E. Walsh

    Is current monetary policy consistent with maintaining a low rate of inflation? Would the establishment of price stability as the Fed’s sole objective hinder long-run growth prospects for the U.S. economy?

  • The Slowing Exodus from California

    1996-38

    Stuart Gabriel and Joe Mattey

    California residents flocked to other U.S. states during California’s long, deep economic downturn of the early 1990s. The departure of large numbers of Californians contrasted starkly with the longstanding norm of sizable net in-flows of population to the Golden State. Substantial numbers of foreign and domestic migrants made their way to California during the first four decades of the post-WWII period.

  • Effects of Welfare Reform on Western States

    1996-37

    Mary Daly and Joe Mattey

    The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 provides a new framework for welfare in the United States. The act ends the 61-year federal entitlement to public assistance for needy individuals and further shifts control over public assistance distribution and benefit levels from the federal to the state governments.

  • Why Do Stock Prices Sometimes Fall in Response to Good Economic News?

    1996-36

    Timothy Cogley

    On a number of occasions this year, the Labor Department has released reports showing that employment was growing more rapidly than analysts had anticipated. For example, the economy added roughly 800,000 jobs in February and another 239,000 jobs in June.

  • Post-1997 Hong Kong: A View from the Financial Markets

    1996-35

    Kenneth Kasa

    Hong Kong is one of the great success stories of economic development. In less than fifty years Hong Kong has transformed itself from a sleepy trading village to one of the wealthiest and most dynamic cities in the world.

  • Capacity Utilization and Structural Change

    1996-34

    Joe Mattey

    The Federal Reserve Board’s measures of capacity utilization for the U.S. manufacturing sector have been a useful indicator of inflationary pressures. However, some observers have claimed that the relationship between capacity utilization and inflation has broken down recently, owing to increased international trade, a shift in the share of the nation’s workforce in service-producing industries, and rapid technological change.

  • Pacific Basin Notes: Trade Liberalization in the Pacific Basin

    1996-33

    Ramon Moreno

    This November, the 18 members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC)–which includes the U.S.–will hold a summit in Subic Bay, the Philippines, to approve individual and collective plans to liberalize trade and investment. APEC is but one of several organizations focused on trade issues in the Pacific Basin.

  • Why Is the Philippines Repurchasing Its Brady Bonds?

    1996-32

    Mark M. Spiegel

    In September, the Philippines announced it would issue $1.9 billion in Eurobonds to finance a repurchase of outstanding Philippine “Brady bonds,” the securities acquired by banks in the Philippines debt restructuring under the Brady Plan in 1992. The Brady Plan was a program of debt reduction partially financed by official institutions to allow highly indebted countries to repurchase debt at a discount.