Support­ing a Stronger Economy

Support­ing a Stronger Economy

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco serves the nine western states, two territories, and commonwealth in the Federal Reserve’s Twelfth District. The Bank’s congressionally mandated mission is to promote maximum employment and stable prices, and support the nation’s financial and payment systems.

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Economic Research

Read the SF Fed’s most-viewed economic research publications to learn more about topics like inflation, employment, artificial intelligence, and other forces shaping the economy.

The U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace, supported by stronger labor productivity. In this SF FedViews, Research Advisor Huiyu Li examines inflation, labor market conditions, market expectations of the policy rate, productivity, and the role of AI in the economy.

Stock-bond correlations recently flipped to negative, suggesting that the perceived source of risk to the economy has shifted from demand concerns to supply shocks. The stock-oil correlation has also switched to negative, a stark change from the previous decade.

Recent declines in job finding rates for unemployed people have been led by prime-age and college-educated individuals while nonparticipant declines have been led by younger and less-educated individuals. These patterns differ from typical expansions, suggesting structural rather than cyclical forces.

A medium-run natural rate of interest can be a useful benchmark for monetary policy, offering a clearer signal than a long-run natural rate that ignores transitory economic shifts or a volatile and potentially mismeasured short-run natural rate.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly engages with people and businesses in the Twelfth District and across the U.S. to better understand the economy and explain her thinking on monetary policy and the economic outlook.

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