Firing the Fourth Arrow: The Private Sector and the Future of Japan

Discussion: After two decades of economic stagnation, Japan is in the process of reinvention amid ongoing economic reform and aggressive central bank easing. While the prospects of Prime Minister Abe’s reform program remain uncertain, Japan also faces demographic challenges of historic proportions. The country’s population has declined since 2011, with those aged 65 or over comprising a quarter of all citizens since 2013. Meanwhile, Japan’s workforce is shrinking while its productivity gap against the United States worsens: as of 2011, the productivity gap stood at 29 percent and, if left unchecked, will widen to 37 percent in 2025. In its new report, The Future of Japan: Reigniting Productive and Growth, the McKinsey Global Institute argues that Japan’s private sector should take the lead and fire a “fourth arrow” of economic reforms: Japanese companies should step into the gap to spur a profound transformation in Japan’s labor and capital productivity, institute global best practices, deploy new technologies, and introduce greater competition.

Join us for an expert panel discussion on how Japan’s corporate sector can fire this “fourth arrow” to spur Japan’s economic prospects. Our co-sponsors for this event include the Asia Society, the Bay Area Council, the Cal-Asia Business Council, Center for Japanese Studies at the University of California – Berkeley, the CFA Society of San Francisco, the Japan Policy Research Institute, and the Japan Society.

About the Moderator and Speakers

Michael Chui, Partner, McKinsey Global Institute

Sean Creehan, Japan Analyst, Country Analysis Unit, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Takeo Hoshi, Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Director of the Japan Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center; Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University

Tasuku Kuwabara, Partner, McKinsey & Company