CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services

CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services updates data on how much different types of goods and services contribute to changes in consumer price index (CPI) inflation. This tool is intended to track the extent to which price changes of the typical goods and services that U.S. households consume are driving changes in overall inflation.

The data on this page are based on monthly breakdowns by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of how much consumers pay for a wide range of goods—such as food and gasoline—and services—such as rents and health care—and how much of their budgets they use on each of these categories. The breakdowns are used to calculate how much of the price changes observed in the overall economy is attributable to these specific spending categories.

Price changes in two important categories, food and energy, are quite volatile and are typically more sensitive to global demand and supply shocks. Because of this, the charts on this page separate their contributions to headline inflation from other goods and services. The remaining inflation categories, referred to as core inflation, represent price changes of goods such as cars, furniture, and clothing, as well as price changes of non-energy services, such as transportation, education, and hospitality services. Within non-energy services, shelter inflation, such as rent inflation, often moves more slowly than other categories, so it is represented as a separate category from other core services.

Figures 1 and 2 focus on the 12-month, or year-over-year, change in prices. Figure 1 shows 12-month headline CPI and core CPI inflation. Figure 2 shows the contributions to 12-month headline CPI inflation from four categories: housing, core services excluding housing, core goods, and food and energy. Figures 3 and 4 mirror these two figures but focus on monthly inflation instead.

Figure 5 identifies the smallest and largest contributors to monthly core CPI inflation based on a more detailed breakdown of inflation provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In this figure, monthly core CPI inflation is broken down into 67 subcategories, such as home appliances, used vehicles, rent of primary residence, dental services, and airline fares. These categories are ranked based on how much they contribute to monthly core CPI inflation. Only the smallest five and largest five subcategories by contribution are shown for ease of visualization.

Figure 1: Headline and Core 12-month CPI inflation (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics. Gray shading indicates NBER recession dates.

Figure 2: Contributions to 12-month headline CPI inflation (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics and FRBSF staff calculations. Gray shading indicates NBER recession dates. Solid black line is the 12-month headline CPI inflation rate.

Figure 3: Headline and Core 1-month CPI inflation (monthly, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics. Gray shading indicates NBER recession dates.

Figure 4: Contributions to 1-month headline CPI inflation (monthly, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics and FRBSF staff calculations. Gray shading indicates NBER recession dates. Solid black line is the 1-month headline CPI inflation rate.

Figure 5: Largest and smallest contributors to 1-month core CPI inflation (monthly, seasonally adjusted)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics and FRBSF staff calculations.

Note: CPI data are released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Summary statistics on this page will be updated monthly soon after the release of the data.

References

Abdelrahman, Hamza, Luiz E. Oliveira, and Cheikh Fall. 2024. “A Deep Dive into the Drivers of CPI inflation: Introducing Our New Data Page.” SF Fed Blog, MMMM DD.

Leduc, Sylvain. 2023. “Quick Clip: Mix of Inflation Contributors Is Changing.” YouTube video excerpt from “Ask the SF Fed,” February 7.

For related data see PCE Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services,  Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation and Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation