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Center for Monetary Research | Publications

Research and Publications

Selected SF Fed research on monetary economics and macro-finance topics, organized by three content categories: (1) Working Papers; (2) FRBSF Economic Letters; and (3) articles published in external academic journals.

Working Papers >

Academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains selected working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

  • Corporate Debt Maturity Matters for Monetary Policy

    Corporate Debt Maturity Matters for Monetary Policy

    Joachim Jungherr, Matthias Meier, Timo Reinelt, Immo Schott

    We provide novel empirical evidence that firms’ investment is more responsive to monetary policy when a higher fraction of their debt matures. In a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with financial frictions and endogenous debt maturity, two channels explain this finding: (1.) Firms with more maturing debt have larger roll-over needs and are therefore more exposed to fluctuations in the real interest rate (roll-over risk). (2.) These firms also have higher default risk and therefore react more strongly to changes in the real burden of outstanding nominal debt (debt overhang). Unconventional monetary policy, which operates through long-term interest rates, has larger effects on debt maturity but smaller effects on output and inflation than conventional monetary policy.

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View all Center for Monetary Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letter >

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve. This section contains selected Economic Letters on monetary economics and macro-finance topics.

  • Pandemic-Era Liquid Wealth Is Running Dry

    Pandemic-Era Liquid Wealth Is Running Dry

    Hamza Abdelrahman, Luiz Edgard Oliveira, Adam Shapiro

    Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed significantly by income group. While middle- and lower-income households hold substantially less liquid wealth than implied by pre-pandemic projections, the level for higher-income households remains close to its pre-pandemic path. Over the same period, credit card delinquency rates initially dropped and, more recently, have steadily risen as pandemic-era liquid wealth was depleted, especially for middle- and lower-income households.

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View all Center for Monetary Research Economic Letters

Recent Journal Articles >

This section contains selected journal articles on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico
Journal of International Economics 151, September 2024 | Remy Beauregard, Jens H.E. Christensen, Eric Fischer, and Simon Zhu

Perceptions About Monetary Policy
Quarterly Journal of Economics, June 2024 | Michael D. Bauer, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam

Evergreening
Journal of Financial Economics 153(103778), March 2024 | Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Pascal Paul, and Juan M. Sanchez

A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation
American Economic Review 113(11), November 2023, 2,809-2,845 | Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps
Review of Economic Studies 90(6), November 2023, 2,822-2,879 | Nicolas Caramp and Sanjay R. Singh

A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 37, 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
American Economic Review 113(3), March 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
European Economic Review 151, January 2023, 104290 | Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Journal of Financial Intermediation 53, January 2023 | Pascal Paul