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Center for Monetary Research | Publications

Research and Publications

Selected SF Fed research on monetary economics and macro-finance topics, organized by three content categories: (1) Working Papers; (2) FRBSF Economic Letters; and (3) articles published in external academic journals.

Working Papers >

Academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains selected working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

  • Monetary Policy and The Medium-Run Natural Rate

    Monetary Policy and The Medium-Run Natural Rate

    Vasco Curdia

    The natural rate of interest is an elusive concept in theory and practice. However, it is essential for central banks’ calibration of the policy rate. Model consistent measures are often too extreme to be used in practice. On the other hand, empirical measures lack the full backing of theory to make them proper benchmarks. This […]

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View all Center for Monetary Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letter >

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve. This section contains selected Economic Letters on monetary economics and macro-finance topics.

  • The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk

    The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk

    Sophia Cho, Thomas Mertens, John Williams

    Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates. The information from this statistical distribution can help measure the perceived risk of interest rates returning to the zero lower bound in the future. The risk varies over time, driven mainly by the expected level of interest rates. At longer forecast horizons, a higher risk of returning to the lower bound primarily reflects a higher amount of uncertainty. Currently, the perceived risk appears slim over the next few years but is significant at longer horizons.

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View all Center for Monetary Research Economic Letters

Recent Journal Articles >

This section contains selected journal articles on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe
European Economic Review 177, August 2025 | Michael Bauer, Eric Offner, and Glenn Rudebusch

Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier
Published in Journal of Monetary Economics 152(103783), June 2025 | Piergiorgio Alessandri, Oscar Jorda, and Fabrizio Venditti

Monetary Tightening and Financial Stress during Supply– versus Demand–Driven Inflation
Published in International Journal of Central Banking 21, April 2025 | F. Boissay, F. Collard, C. Manea, and Adam Shapiro

Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates, and the Optimal Inflation Target
Published in Journal of Monetary Economics 149(103647), January 2025 | Klaus Adam, Oliver Pfauti, and Timo Reinelt

Phillips Meets Beveridge
Journal of Monetary Economics 148 (Supplement), November 2024 | Regis Barnichon and Adam Hale Shapiro

Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 167, October 2024 | Kevin Lansing

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
The Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2024 | Oscar Jorda, Sanjay R. Singh, and Alan M. Taylor

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico
Journal of International Economics 151, September 2024 | Remy Beauregard, Jens H.E. Christensen, Eric Fischer, and Simon Zhu

Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP
The Review of Economics and Statistics 106(4), July 2024 | Matthias Meier and Timo Reinelt

Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 16(3), July 2024 | Pablo Cuba-Borda and Sanjay R. Singh

Perceptions About Monetary Policy
Quarterly Journal of Economics, June 2024 | Michael D. Bauer, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam

Evergreening
Journal of Financial Economics 153(103778), March 2024 | Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Pascal Paul, and Juan M. Sanchez

Supply or Demand? Policymakers’ Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis
European Economic Review 161, January 2024 | Antonio Fatas and Sanjay R. Singh

Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
Journal of Economic Perspectives 37(1), Winter 2023 | Michael D. Bauer, Ben S. Bernanke, and Eric Milstein

A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation
American Economic Review 113(11), November 2023, 2,809-2,845 | Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps
Review of Economic Studies 90(6), November 2023, 2,822-2,879 | Nicolas Caramp and Sanjay R. Singh

Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What Is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?
Journal of International Economics 144(103771), September 2023 | Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, and Sylvain Leduc

A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 37, 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
American Economic Review 113(3), March 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
European Economic Review 151, January 2023, 104290 | Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Journal of Financial Intermediation 53, January 2023 | Pascal Paul