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Center for Monetary Research | Publications

Research and Publications

Selected SF Fed research on monetary economics and macro-finance topics, organized by three content categories: (1) Working Papers; (2) FRBSF Economic Letters; and (3) articles published in external academic journals.

Working Papers >

Academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains selected working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

  • Real Effects of Nominal Interest Rates

    Real Effects of Nominal Interest Rates

    Joshua K. Hausman, John V. Leahy, John Mondragon, Johannes Wieland

    Nominal interest rates have real effects. Residential mortgages and other real world debt contracts require a sequence of constant nominal payments. Combined with payment-to-income constraints, these nominal payments force borrowers to take on less debt when nominal interest rates rise, regardless of the behavior of the real interest rate. Survey data shows that conditional on

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View all Center for Monetary Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letter >

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve. This section contains selected Economic Letters on monetary economics and macro-finance topics.

  • Monetary Policy Through the Lens of Market-Based Inflation

    Monetary Policy Through the Lens of Market-Based Inflation

    Sylvain Leduc, Luiz Edgard Oliveira

    Some goods and services prices are not directly observed and must be indirectly derived for measuring inflation. This nonmarket-based inflation category has been an important factor keeping headline inflation elevated over the past two years. Because indirectly deriving prices introduces measurement uncertainty, one monetary policy approach would be to focus solely on directly observable prices. Applying this through a well-known monetary policy rule suggests a notably lower federal funds rate. However, other rules that account for the implicit uncertainty that policymakers face would leave the federal funds rate essentially unchanged.

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View all Center for Monetary Research Economic Letters

Recent Journal Articles >

This section contains selected journal articles on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe
European Economic Review 177, August 2025 | Michael Bauer, Eric Offner, and Glenn Rudebusch

Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier
Published in Journal of Monetary Economics 152(103783), June 2025 | Piergiorgio Alessandri, Oscar Jorda, and Fabrizio Venditti

Monetary Tightening and Financial Stress during Supply– versus Demand–Driven Inflation
Published in International Journal of Central Banking 21, April 2025 | F. Boissay, F. Collard, C. Manea, and Adam Shapiro

Subjective Housing Price Expectations, Falling Natural Rates, and the Optimal Inflation Target
Published in Journal of Monetary Economics 149(103647), January 2025 | Klaus Adam, Oliver Pfauti, and Timo Reinelt

Phillips Meets Beveridge
Journal of Monetary Economics 148 (Supplement), November 2024 | Regis Barnichon and Adam Hale Shapiro

Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 167, October 2024 | Kevin Lansing

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
The Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2024 | Oscar Jorda, Sanjay R. Singh, and Alan M. Taylor

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico
Journal of International Economics 151, September 2024 | Remy Beauregard, Jens H.E. Christensen, Eric Fischer, and Simon Zhu

Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP
The Review of Economics and Statistics 106(4), July 2024 | Matthias Meier and Timo Reinelt

Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 16(3), July 2024 | Pablo Cuba-Borda and Sanjay R. Singh

Perceptions About Monetary Policy
Quarterly Journal of Economics, June 2024 | Michael D. Bauer, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam

Evergreening
Journal of Financial Economics 153(103778), March 2024 | Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Pascal Paul, and Juan M. Sanchez

Supply or Demand? Policymakers’ Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis
European Economic Review 161, January 2024 | Antonio Fatas and Sanjay R. Singh

Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
Journal of Economic Perspectives 37(1), Winter 2023 | Michael D. Bauer, Ben S. Bernanke, and Eric Milstein

A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation
American Economic Review 113(11), November 2023, 2,809-2,845 | Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps
Review of Economic Studies 90(6), November 2023, 2,822-2,879 | Nicolas Caramp and Sanjay R. Singh

Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What Is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?
Journal of International Economics 144(103771), September 2023 | Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, and Sylvain Leduc

A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 37, 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
American Economic Review 113(3), March 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
European Economic Review 151, January 2023, 104290 | Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Journal of Financial Intermediation 53, January 2023 | Pascal Paul