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Center for Monetary Research | Publications

Research and Publications

Selected SF Fed research on monetary economics and macro-finance topics, organized by three content categories: (1) Working Papers; (2) FRBSF Economic Letters; and (3) articles published in external academic journals.

Working Papers >

Academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains selected working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

  • Asset Purchases in a Monetary Union with Default and Liquidity Risks

    Asset Purchases in a Monetary Union with Default and Liquidity Risks

    Huixin Bi, Andrew Foerster, Nora Traum

    Using a two-country monetary union framework with financial frictions, we quantify the efficacy of targeted asset purchases, as well as expectations of such programs, in the presence of sovereign default and financial liquidity risks. The risk of default increases with the level of government debt and shifts in investors’ perception of fiscal solvency. Liquidity risks […]

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View all Center for Monetary Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letter >

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve. This section contains selected Economic Letters on monetary economics and macro-finance topics.

  • A Rising Star: The Natural Interest Rate in the Euro Area

    A Rising Star: The Natural Interest Rate in the Euro Area

    Jens H. E. Christensen, Sarah Mouabbi

    The natural rate of interest, also known as r-star, is a key variable for analyzing fiscal and monetary policy. A novel method of measuring this rate for the euro area uses a yield curve model estimated directly on the prices of bonds that are indexed to euro-area inflation. Estimates suggest that the euro-area natural interest rate declined persistently in the two decades before the pandemic but has risen notably in recent years. Projections using this methodology suggest that the rate is likely to increase further, albeit more gradually.

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View all Center for Monetary Research Economic Letters

Recent Journal Articles >

This section contains selected journal articles on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

Phillips Meets Beveridge
Journal of Monetary Economics 148 (Supplement), November 2024 | Regis Barnichon and Adam Hale Shapiro

Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 167, October 2024 | Kevin Lansing

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
The Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2024 | Oscar Jorda, Sanjay R. Singh, and Alan M. Taylor

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico
Journal of International Economics 151, September 2024 | Remy Beauregard, Jens H.E. Christensen, Eric Fischer, and Simon Zhu

Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP
The Review of Economics and Statistics 106(4), July 2024 | Matthias Meier and Timo Reinelt

Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 16(3), July 2024 | Pablo Cuba-Borda and Sanjay R. Singh

Perceptions About Monetary Policy
Quarterly Journal of Economics, June 2024 | Michael D. Bauer, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam

Evergreening
Journal of Financial Economics 153(103778), March 2024 | Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Pascal Paul, and Juan M. Sanchez

Supply or Demand? Policymakers’ Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis
European Economic Review 161, January 2024 | Antonio Fatas and Sanjay R. Singh

Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
Journal of Economic Perspectives 37(1), Winter 2023 | Michael D. Bauer, Ben S. Bernanke, and Eric Milstein

A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation
American Economic Review 113(11), November 2023, 2,809-2,845 | Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps
Review of Economic Studies 90(6), November 2023, 2,822-2,879 | Nicolas Caramp and Sanjay R. Singh

Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What Is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?
Journal of International Economics 144(103771), September 2023 | Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, and Sylvain Leduc

A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 37, 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
American Economic Review 113(3), March 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
European Economic Review 151, January 2023, 104290 | Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Journal of Financial Intermediation 53, January 2023 | Pascal Paul