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Center for Monetary Research | Publications

Research and Publications

Selected SF Fed research on monetary economics and macro-finance topics, organized by three content categories: (1) Working Papers; (2) FRBSF Economic Letters; and (3) articles published in external academic journals.

Working Papers >

Academic research by SF Fed economists and affiliates intended for publication in scholarly journals. This section contains selected working papers on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

  • The Bank Lending Channel Is Back

    The Bank Lending Channel Is Back

    Mark M. Spiegel

    The period following the global financial crisis was marked by low interest rates and low responsiveness of bank lending to monetary policy. This led some to conclude that the bank lending channel for monetary policy to influence economic activity had weakened. This paper revisits the responsiveness of the bank lending channel using a bank-level panel of US Call Report data and updated measures of U.S. monetary policy shocks. Results indicate that the efficacy of the bank lending channel increased over our sample period. We find tepid responses in bank lending to monetary shocks from 2012H1 through 2016H2, matching the existing literature, but significantly more robust responsiveness after liftoff, represented by the latter portion of our sample from 2017H1 through 2023H2. Separating the later panel by bank size reveals that the bank lending channel is larger for small and medium-sized banks than for large banks over this later period, also consistent with studies predating the global financial crisis. Increases in responsiveness at conventional rates are even greater for small business lending. An interactive specification over our entire sample period confirms that the stronger recent bank lending responses to monetary policy shocks are associated with sufficiently high prevailing levels of the federal funds rate.

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View all Center for Monetary Research Working Papers

FRBSF Economic Letter >

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve. This section contains selected Economic Letters on monetary economics and macro-finance topics.

  • Current Perceptions About Monetary Policy

    Current Perceptions About Monetary Policy

    Michael Bauer, Carolin Pflueger, Adi Sunderam

    Surveys of professional economic forecasters and financial market data can reveal public perceptions about the future conduct of monetary policy. Current estimates suggest that both professional forecasters and investors expect the Federal Reserve to respond strongly and systematically to changes in economic conditions. The current perceived responsiveness to inflation is particularly high relative to past responsiveness. Furthermore, the perceived importance of employment as a driver of future policy interest rates has strengthened since 2024.

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View all Center for Monetary Research Economic Letters

Recent Journal Articles >

This section contains selected journal articles on monetary economics and macro-finance topics that have been authored or co-authored by SF Fed economists.

Phillips Meets Beveridge
Journal of Monetary Economics 148 (Supplement), November 2024 | Regis Barnichon and Adam Hale Shapiro

Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 167, October 2024 | Kevin Lansing

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
The Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2024 | Oscar Jorda, Sanjay R. Singh, and Alan M. Taylor

Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico
Journal of International Economics 151, September 2024 | Remy Beauregard, Jens H.E. Christensen, Eric Fischer, and Simon Zhu

Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP
The Review of Economics and Statistics 106(4), July 2024 | Matthias Meier and Timo Reinelt

Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 16(3), July 2024 | Pablo Cuba-Borda and Sanjay R. Singh

Perceptions About Monetary Policy
Quarterly Journal of Economics, June 2024 | Michael D. Bauer, Carolin E. Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam

Evergreening
Journal of Financial Economics 153(103778), March 2024 | Miguel Faria-e-Castro, Pascal Paul, and Juan M. Sanchez

Supply or Demand? Policymakers’ Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis
European Economic Review 161, January 2024 | Antonio Fatas and Sanjay R. Singh

Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
Journal of Economic Perspectives 37(1), Winter 2023 | Michael D. Bauer, Ben S. Bernanke, and Eric Milstein

A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation
American Economic Review 113(11), November 2023, 2,809-2,845 | Regis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps
Review of Economic Studies 90(6), November 2023, 2,822-2,879 | Nicolas Caramp and Sanjay R. Singh

Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances: What Is the Optimal Monetary Policy Response?
Journal of International Economics 144(103771), September 2023 | Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, and Sylvain Leduc

A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 37, 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
American Economic Review 113(3), March 2023 | Michael D. Bauer and Eric T. Swanson

Communicating Monetary Policy Rules
European Economic Review 151, January 2023, 104290 | Troy Davig and Andrew Foerster

Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy
Journal of Financial Intermediation 53, January 2023 | Pascal Paul