Thursday, November 5, 2015 – Friday, November 6, 2015
Yellen Conference Center, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
101 Market Street
San Francisco, CA94105
Recent Advances in Fixed Income Research and Implications for Monetary Policy
Thursday, November 5
Welcoming Remarks
Timothy Lane, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada
Session 1: The Effects of Quantitative Easing
Session Chair: Michael Bauer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing
Michael Bordo, Rutgers University, Hoover Institute at Stanford University, NBER
Arunima Sinha, Fordham University
Discussant: Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, Berkeley Haas
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Transmission of Quantitative Easing: The Role of Central Bank Reserves
Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Signe Krogstrup, Swiss National Bank
Discussant: Arvind Krishnamurthy, Stanford Graduate School of Business
Session 2: Macroeconomic Risks and the Yield Curve
Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Yield Curve
Markus Leippold, Swiss Financial Institute and University of Zurich
Felix Matthys, Princeton University
Discussant: Anna Cieslak, Duke University
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Macro Risks and the Term Structure
Geert Bekaert, Columbia University and NBER
Eric Engstrom, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Andrey Ermolov, Columbia University
Discussant: Mikhail Chernov, University of California at Los Angeles
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Session 3: Bond Prices in Equilibrium
Session Chair: Michael Ehrmann, Bank of Canada
A Macroeconomic Model of Equities and Real, Nominal, and Defaultable Debt
Eric Swanson, University of California at Irvine
Discussant: Hanno Lustig, Stanford Graduate School of Business
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Bond Risk Premia in Consumption-based Models
Drew Creal, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Jing Cynthia Wu, University of Chicago Booth School of Business and NBER
Discussant: Ivan Shaliastovich, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
Session 4: Predicting Interest Rates
Robust Bond Risk Premia
Michael Bauer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
James Hamilton, University of California at San Diego
Discussant: John Cochrane, Hoover Institute at Stanford University
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Loss Functions for Forecasting Treasury Yields
Hitesh Doshi, University of Houston
Kris Jacobs, University of Houston
Rui Liu, University of Houston
Discussant: Frank Diebold, University of Pennsylvania
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Dinner, Market Street Dining Room, Fourth Floor
Introduction: John C. Williams, President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Keynote Speaker: Athanasios Orphanides, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Friday, November 6
Session 5: Term Structure Modeling and the Zero Lower Bound
Session Chair: Antonio Diez de los Rios, Bank of Canada
Tractable Term Structure Models: A New Approach
Bruno Feunou, Bank of Canada
Jean-Sebastien Fontaine, Bank of Canada
Anh Le, Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Discussant: Greg Duffee, Johns Hopkins University
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Staying at Zero with Affine Processes: An Application to Term Structure Modelling
Alain Monfort, Banque de France
Fulvio Pegoraro, Banque de France
Jean-Paul Renne, Banque de France
Guillaume Roussellet, Banque de France
Discussant: Marcel Priebsch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Session 6: Financial Stability in Bond Markets
Reaching for Yield by Corporate Bond Mutual Funds
Jaewon Choi, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Matias Kronlund, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Discussant: Francis Longstaff, University of California at Los Angeles
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Collateral, Central Bank Repos, and Systemic Arbitrage
Falko Fecht, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
Kjell Nyborg, University of Zurich, Swiss Finance Institute, and CEPR
Jorg Rocholl, ESMT European School of Management and Technology Jiri Woschitz, University of Zurich
Discussant: Stefania D’Amico, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Program Committee:
Antonio Diez de los Rios, Bank of Canada
Jean-Sebastien Fontaine, Bank of Canada
Michael Bauer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Jens Christensen, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco