Economic Letter
Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.
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Current Perceptions About Monetary Policy
Michael Bauer, Carolin Pflueger, Adi Sunderam
Surveys of professional economic forecasters and financial market data can reveal public perceptions about the future conduct of monetary policy. Current estimates suggest that both professional forecasters and investors expect the Federal Reserve to respond strongly and systematically to changes in economic conditions. The current perceived responsiveness to inflation is particularly high relative to past responsiveness. Furthermore, the perceived importance of employment as a driver of future policy interest rates has strengthened since 2024.
