Economic Letter
Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.
-
Where Is the U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic Headed?
Daniel J. Wilson
Consumer spending and business operations across the United States have been highly dependent on local conditions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Current economic forecasts therefore must incorporate projections for where the pandemic is headed. A new econometric model provides county-level and national forecasts of COVID-19 infections. Estimates from the model indicate that population immunity acquired from prior infections is the primary driver of recent declines in new cases. This factor should continue to exert strong downward pressure on new cases in the weeks ahead.
-
Parental Participation in a Pandemic Labor Market
Olivia Lofton, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, and Lily Seitelman
Gender gaps in labor market outcomes during the pandemic largely reflect differences in parents’ experiences. Labor force participation fell much less for fathers compared with other men and all women at the onset of the pandemic; the recovery has been more pronounced for men and women without children. Meanwhile, labor force participation among mothers declined with the start of the school year. Evidence suggests flexibility in setting work schedules can offset some of the adverse impact on mothers’ employment, while the ability to work from home does not.
-
Capital Flow Surges and Rising Income Inequality
Renuka Diwan, Zheng Liu, and Mark M. Spiegel
Surges of foreign investment into developing countries can amplify economic stress and potentially undermine their financial stability. New evidence suggests that excessive foreign capital inflows can also increase income inequality in emerging economies. Research shows that, as low global interest rates trigger more investment, those inflow surges benefit entrepreneurs by raising their returns, while lowering household earnings on bank deposits within the countries. The potential impact on income inequality provides another reason beyond financial stability for resisting abrupt surges in capital inflows.
-
Disagreement about U.S. and Euro-Area Inflation Forecasts
Reuven Glick and Noah Kouchekinia
Disagreement among economic forecasters about the outlook for inflation in both the United States and the euro area has increased since the onset of the pandemic. The nature of these forecast differences can provide insights into the inflation risks that lie ahead. Many forecasters initially expected substantially lower inflation over the next year but subsequently raised their expectations as economic activity began to improve. In contrast, changes in expectations and disagreement about longer-term inflation have been relatively subdued and suggest a balanced likelihood between higher and lower inflation.
-
Lessons from History, Policy for Today
Mary C. Daly
Today’s economic challenges are different from the past, and it’s important to learn from history to achieve a better economic future for everyone. As the economy recovers from the effects of COVID-19, the Fed’s new policy framework retains vigilance against inflation while committing to not pull back the reins on the economy in response to a strong labor market. The following is adapted from a virtual webinar by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Economic Club of New York on March 2.
-
Resilience of Community Banks in the Time of COVID-19
Simon Kwan
Stress tests in December 2020 showed that the largest U.S. banks had strong capital levels and could continue to lend to households and businesses under hypothetical severe recessions. Assessing thousands of small community banks against similar criteria suggests that, while about one-fifth could fall below adequate capitalization, only a handful of those risk becoming insolvent. Overall, this is a reassuring view for small banks and their communities, suggesting that the risk of widespread bank failures leading to financial instability appears to be small.
-
Contrasting U.S. and European Job Markets during COVID-19
Jean-Benoît Eyméoud, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis, and Etienne Wasmer
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented slowing of economic activity that followed caused severe disruptions to labor markets around the globe. In contrast to the United States, European Union countries funded short-time work programs to maintain jobs during a period of lockdown that was expected to be transitory. This succeeded in avoiding sharp increases in unemployment early in the recession. However, if the pandemic leads to a permanent reallocation of economic activity, short-time work programs may slow the process of workers moving from shrinking to growing sectors of the economy.
-
Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures
John Fernald, Huiyu Li, and Mitchell Ochse
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive disruptions to the U.S. educational system. Research on school closures—particularly combined with parental income loss—implies that children are likely to attain lower levels of lifetime education compared with pre-pandemic trends. Projections show learning disruptions could lower the level of annual economic output ¼ percentage point on average over the next 70 years. The effect is small the first 5–10 years then peaks at a loss of ½ percentage point in about 25 years, when the children reach prime working age.
-
Climate Change Is a Source of Financial Risk
Glenn D. Rudebusch
The ongoing trend of climate change—including higher temperatures and more extreme weather—will result in economic and financial losses for many businesses, households, and governments. Moreover, the uncertainty about the severity and timing of these losses is a source of financial risk. Recently, the Federal Reserve joined other financial regulators to warn that such climate-related financial risk may threaten the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and the stability of the overall financial system.
-
Can Government Spending Help to Escape Recessions?
Regis Barnichon, Davide Debortoli, and Christian Matthes
A key to designing fiscal policy is understanding how government purchases affect economic output overall. Research suggests that expanding government spending is not very effective at stimulating an economy in normal times. However, in deep downturns when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound, public spending is more potent and can become an effective way to escape a recession.