Economic Letter
Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.
-
Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics
Evgeniya Duzhak, Addie New-Schmidt
Recent shifts in immigration flows have lowered the estimates of net international migration into the United States. New data indicate that net migration will be close to half a million people in 2025, down from 2.2 million in 2024. Estimates based on these data and on past trends for the U.S.-born population suggest that this could lead to a decrease in the working-age population and slower growth in the prime-age labor force. Continued low levels of immigration would lead to decreases in the total prime-age labor force.
