Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco

Economic Letter

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.

  • Jobless Recovery Redux?

    2009-18

    Mary C. Daly

    Although the pace of layoffs appears to be subsiding and the overall economy is showing hints of stabilization, most forecasters expect unemployment to continue to increase in coming months and to recede only gradually as recovery takes hold. In this Economic Letter, we evaluate this projection using data on three labor market indicators: worker flows into and out of unemployment; involuntary part-time employment; and temporary layoffs.

  • The Fed’s Monetary Policy Response to the Current Crisis

    2009-17

    Glenn D. Rudebusch

    The global financial market turmoil that started in August 2007 has been followed by a severe economic downturn. Indeed, the U.S. economic recession is on track to be the longest and deepest of the postwar period.

  • U.S. Household Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth

    2009-16

    Reuven Glick and Kevin J. Lansing

    U.S. household leverage, as measured by the ratio of debt to personal disposable income, increased modestly from 55% in 1960 to 65% by the mid-1980s. Then, over the next two decades, leverage proceeded to more than double, reaching an all-time high of 133% in 2007.

  • A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers

    2009-15

    Janet L. Yellen

    This Economic Letter is adapted from a speech delivered by Janet L. Yellen, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to the 18th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies on April 16, 2009, in New York City.

  • Are Fiscal Stimulus Funds Going to the “Right” States?

    2009-14

    Daniel Wilson

    The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) was signed into law on February 17, and already its impact is being felt in state capitals around the nation. Governors and state legislators are incorporating expected stimulus funds into 2009-2010 budgets and a number of state public works projects predicated on ARRA funding already have begun.

  • Interprovincial Inequality in China

    2009-13

    Mary C. Daly

    Over the past 30 years, China has transformed itself, posting extraordinary rates of growth and increasing the living standards of nearly all its citizens. At the same time, China has become a far less equal nation, with vast differences emerging between those living in rural versus urban areas, inland versus coastal areas, and globally oriented versus more insular areas.

  • The Risk of Deflation

    2009-12

    John C. Williams

    The worsening global recession has heightened concerns that the United States and other economies could enter a sustained period of deflation, as did Japan in the 1990s and the United States during the Great Depression. Indeed, a popular version of the well-known Phillips curve model of inflation predicts that we are on the cusp of a deflationary spiral in which prices will fall at ever-increasing rates over the next several years.

  • The Outlook for Productivity Growth: Symposium Summary

    2009-11

    Mark Doms

    This Economic Letter summarizes several papers presented at the symposium “The Outlook for Future Productivity Growth” hosted November 14, 2008, by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Center for the Study of Innovation and Productivity (CSIP). The papers are listed at the end and most are available online.

  • 2008 Annual Pacific Basin Conference: Summary

    2009-10

    Reuven Glick

    This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at the 2008 Annual Pacific Basin conference held September 19-20, 2008, at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco under the sponsorship of the Bank’s Center for Pacific Basin Studies. Conference papers are listed at the end and are available online.

  • How Will a Credit Crunch Affect Small Business Finance?

    2009-09

    Gregory F. Udell

    There is considerable concern about the duration and severity of the credit crunch caused by the current financial crisis. Some evidence indicates that this could become one of the worst credit crunches in recent history.