Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco

Economic Letter

Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.

  • Does Pegging Increase International trade?

    2000-29

    Ramon Moreno

    The currency crises of the 1990s appeared to reinforce the view that, in the long run, all currency pegs are unsustainable. And yet, pegged regimes maintain their attraction. For example, Calvo and Reinhart (2000) find evidence that many countries intervene to smooth fluctuations in the exchange rate even while they claim to be floating.

  • Recent Declines in Work and Income among Men with Disabilities

    2000-28

    Mary C. Daly

    It is by now conventional wisdom that the economic expansion during the 1990s was both broad and deep, reaching Americans of all races, ethnicities, and income levels. However, this Economic Letter summarizes recent research by Burkhauser, Daly, and Houtenville (forthcoming and 2000, hereafter BDH) which shows that for the nearly 10% of the working-age population with disabilities, strong economic growth during the 1990s did not produce higher rates of employment or rapid income gains.

  • Tech Stocks and House Prices in California

    2000-27

    John Krainer and Fred Furlong

    The San Francisco Bay Area is notable for its concentration of high-tech firms. The Bay Area also has experienced a sharp appreciation in house prices in recent years. Part of the explanation for the soaring house prices may lie in the so-called “wealth effect.”

  • Short-term International Borrowing and Financial Fragility

    2000-26

    Mark M. Spiegel

    In the wake of the large number of international financial crises that occurred in the 1990s, several proposals have been put forth to reform the “international financial architecture,” that is, the institutional features that characterize the international monetary system. These proposals aim to make the system less prone to financial crises in the future.

  • Have Californians Kept Up in the 1990s?

    2000-25

    Mary C. Daly

    Although by most measures the California economy has been outperforming the U.S. economy for nearly five years, a number of statistics on family income suggest that Californians are losing ground relative to others in the U.S. Data on income growth show that while median family income outside of California grew by more than 8% between 1989 and 1998, median family income in California declined by 4%.

  • Should Central Banks Stabilize Prices?

    2000-24

    Carl E. Walsh

    Twenty years ago, the policy problem facing many central banks was obvious–inflation was too high and needed to be reduced. Identifying the problem did not mean it was easy to solve. Debate centered on the potential real output and unemployment costs of reducing inflation, on whether a gradual disinflation or a more rapid one would be least costly, and on how central banks could credibly commit to carrying through a disinflation once begun.

  • B2B E-commerce in Residential Mortgages

    2000-23

    Joe Mattey

    Internet-related technology is part of many industries, including the residential mortgage business. At first, e-commerce innovations mainly involved the business-to-consumer (B2C) segment in electronically soliciting and submitting mortgage applications. More recently, business-to-business (B2B) mortgage transactions have come into the e-commerce world.

  • What Explains Capital Flows?

    2000-22

    Ramon Moreno

    Capital flows between countries can yield significant benefits. They allow investors to diversify their risks and increase returns, and they allow residents of recipient countries to finance rapid rates of investment and economic growth, as well as to increase consumption.

  • Exploring the Causes of the Great Inflation

    2000-21

    Kevin J. Lansing

    Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has been raising short-term interest rates. These rate hikes are designed to prevent inflation from trending upward from the low levels enjoyed by U.S. consumers over the past several years.

  • Evaluating the Stock Market

    2000-20

    Bharat Trehan

    Since the 1980s, U.S. stock markets have soared, and stock prices now are at levels that were unimaginable before the boom started. There has been no shortage of speculation about the reasons for this performance.