Economic Letter
Brief summaries of SF Fed economic research that explain in reader-friendly terms what our work means for the people we serve.
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Assessing a Medium-Run Natural Rate of Interest
Vasco Cúrdia
The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of it are imprecise and volatile. A medium-run measure that focuses on responsiveness to persistent economic factors while removing short-term volatility may provide more reliable guidance. Analysis suggests that monetary policy using this measure could stabilize inflation and achieve maximum employment more effectively than standard benchmarks. Current medium-run estimates suggest that monetary policy is accommodative, although uncertainty around this estimate remains high.
