SF FedViews

Recent data have been uneven but on balance consistent with a continued moderate recovery of overall economic activity and the labor market, with modest price inflation. We expect that the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth will pick up over the next few years and that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually. Hence, […]

Bharat Trehan, research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.

Sylvain Leduc, research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.

Simon Kwan, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.

Reuven Glick, group vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, states his views on the current economy and the outlook.

After growing at a fairly strong pace at the end of last year, real GDP has decelerated. Some of the slowdown is probably due to temporary factors, such as a payback for unseasonably warm winter weather that may have accelerated economic activity earlier this year. However, a broad range of economic indicators for the second […]

Businesses are slowly hiring, consistent with an economy that is growing moderately. The economy has recovered about 3¾ million of the 8.8 million jobs lost during the downturn. In April, job gains were a somewhat disappointing 115,000. Still, upward revisions to jobs in February and March left the level of employment close to our expectations. […]

Following past recessions, residential construction made significant contributions to the early stages of recovery. This time, several years after the Great Recession ended, housing remains deeply depressed. Recently, in some localities, there have been pockets of improvement. However, nationally, single-family housing starts are still moving sideways. Outside housing, the recent economic news has generally been […]

Labor market conditions continued to improve in February. Payrolls increased by 227,000, with a gain of 233,000 jobs in the private sector offsetting government job losses. In addition, payroll figures for December and January were revised significantly upward. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in February at 8.3%. The labor force participation rate rose to 63.9% […]

The unemployment rate fell to 8.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, down 0.6 percentage point in the past three months alone. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) incorporated updated annual population estimates in data from the survey of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate. However, it concluded that these […]