FedViews

The economic recovery is proceeding at a subdued pace, with substantial and persistent resource slack and low underlying inflationary pressures. Businesses have been slowly but steadily hiring since early 2010. The economy has recovered about 2¼ million of the 8¾ million jobs lost in the recession. Private businesses have increased employment by about 2¾ million […]

Recent data have been somewhat better than expected, helping ease concerns that the economy may be stalling. Payroll employment rose by 103,000 in September. At the same time, payroll data for July and August were revised up by an average of about 50,000 jobs per month. So it now looks like the economy added roughly […]

Revisions to second-quarter GDP showed that the U.S. economy grew at a 1% rate, down from the initial estimate of 1.3% reported in July. The change was more than accounted for by downward revisions to net exports and inventories, which tend to be volatile from one quarter to the next. Some of the more stable […]

Recent economic news has been disappointing, confirming that the economy has been growing much less quickly than was expected earlier in the year. Although the slowdown is expected largely to be temporary, there are reasons to believe the underlying recovery has lost some momentum. Real personal consumption expenditures fell in May and are expected to […]

GDP grew at a 1.8% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2011, a significant slowdown from the fourth quarter of 2010. Several temporary factors helped push down first-quarter GDP growth. Data released in recent weeks suggest that this sluggishness will persist longer than initially anticipated. We now forecast second-quarter GDP growth will come in […]

GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011 came in at a disappointing 1.8% annualized pace, down from 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2010. However, there is reason to believe that this slowdown is transitory. Our forecast projects moderate growth of around 3% in the current quarter and close to 4% in the second […]

Much of the recent economic news has been disappointing, with notably weaker data for consumer spending, business investment, and government purchases. Over the past two months, our forecast for first-quarter real GDP growth has been revised down by over a percentage point to an annual rate of less than 2%. In addition, the list of […]

The economy has shown more signs that recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace. Real consumer spending rose solidly in the last three months of 2010, although it dipped slightly in January due partly to weather. Vehicles sales have been increasing steadily over the past year and rose strongly in February, up 27% from the […]

The economic recovery has strengthened, with a self-sustaining private-sector dynamic taking hold in which increased spending leads to greater production and income and vice versa. Greater confidence is apparent in stock prices, which have posted steady gains since the middle of last year. However, financial institution valuations are less than 60% and homebuilder valuations are […]

Looking back, our 2010 economic forecast issued a year ago of moderate growth and low inflation proved relatively accurate. We predicted that real GDP would grow 3.4% last year. Based on data available today, growth appears to have been a bit below 3%. The slightly slower-than-expected growth reflects the soft patch the economy went through […]