First Glance 12L

The 1Q21 issue of First Glance 12L notes that waning virus activity and new fiscal stimulus helped boost confidence and reduce unemployment. A brighter economic outlook reduced bank provision expenses, while renewed Paycheck Protection Program activity drove bank loan growth. In the “Spotlight” section this quarter: residential real estate conditions.

The 4Q20 issue of First Glance 12L notes that Paycheck Protection Program loan forgiveness boosted quarterly bank profits but eroded loan growth. Surging winter virus activity hurt employment, but by early 2021, easing case counts, vaccine rollout, and new federal stimulus brightened the outlook. In the “Spotlight” feature this quarter: municipal government fiscal challenges.

The 3Q20 issue of First Glance 12L notes that federal stimulus, low interest rates, and loan modifications continued to blunt the effects of COVID-19 on the economy and banks. However, resurging virus transmission has left the recovery vulnerable. The report highlights banking risks on our radar and recaps selected pandemic impacts.

The 2Q20 issue of First Glance 12L notes that Paycheck Protection Program activity swelled bank balance sheets, distorting several financial metrics. Growth and borrower accommodations held delinquency ratios at bay; however, performance will likely deteriorate once stimulus and forbearance efforts fade. In addition to various hot topics, the report spotlights disparities in household financial stress.

The 1Q20 issue of First Glance 12L charts the sudden and dramatic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic. Federal stimulus and borrower relief blunted some of the economic and banking damage, but the path of the recovery remains uncertain. The report highlights various hot topics, including the small business credit landscape.

The 4Q19 issue of First Glance 12L notes that job and housing markets remained strong, but bank loan growth and earnings slipped. COVID-19 will pose additional headwinds to growth and bank net interest margins in 2020. The report discusses various hot topics, including the forthcoming community bank leverage ratio.

The 3Q19 issue of First Glance 12L notes robust labor and housing markets in the District, but slower lending growth and weaker quarterly bank net interest margins. Banks’ on-balance sheet liquidity and capital ratios strengthened, on average. In addition to supervisory hot topics, the report spotlights wildfire-related risks in California.

The 2Q19 issue of First Glance 12L notes improved District job growth and first half bank profits. Bank capital ratios also strengthened from mid-2018 levels, but were constrained by parent company share buybacks, the topic of our “Spotlight” feature. Slowing global growth, trade tensions, and yield curve shifts pose headwinds.

The 1Q19 issue of First Glance 12L notes decelerating growth in District jobs, home prices, and lending. Quarterly bank profits came under pressure in part because of seasonal effects on asset yields and shifts to costlier funding sources. This quarter’s Spotlight feature discusses the District’s potential economic exposure to rising tariffs.

The 4Q18 issue of First Glance 12L notes continued strong bank performance. At the same time, District job growth slowed and sentiment regarding future loan demand, credit performance, and economic conditions weakened. Some housing markets and price tiers showed signs of softening. A new Spotlight feature discusses bank branching trends.