AI and the Labor Market: Will Firms Hire, Fire, or Retrain?

Authors

Jaison R. Abel, Richard Deitz, Natalia Emanuel, Benjamin Hyman

October 8, 2024

FEDERAL RESERVE RESEARCH: new york

The rapid rise in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to dramatically change the labor market, and indeed possibly even the nature of work itself. However, how firms are adjusting their workforces to accommodate this emerging technology is not yet clear. Our August regional business surveys asked manufacturing and service firms special topical questions about their use of AI, and how it is changing their workforces. Most firms that report expected AI use in the next six months plan to retrain their workforces, with far fewer reporting adjustments to planned headcounts. These results are consistent with economic arguments than downplay alarmism about AI’s potential to displace workers and instead point to its potential to augment employment and fill labor shortages. 

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