Simulating the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Authors

Anne Lundgaard Hansen, John J. Horton, Sophia Kazinnik, Daniela Puzzello, Ali Zarifhonarvar

January 21, 2025

FEDERAL RESERVE RESEARCH: Richmond

We simulate economic predictions of professional forecasters using a set of large language models (LLMs). We construct synthetic forecaster personas using a unique hand-gathered dataset of participant characteristics from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. These personas are then provided with real-time macroeconomic data to generate simulated responses to the SPF survey. Our results suggest that AI-based forecasts align closely with the accuracy and distribution of human predictions, and perform especially well at medium- and long-term horizons, often outperforming human forecasts. Our framework offers a higher-frequency, lower-cost alternative to traditional survey methods. It also provides new insights into the behavioral and structural factors that shape professional economic predictions.

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