German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, yet Undervalued

2025-03 | February 5, 2025

We document that German inflation-linked government bond yields contain a convenience or safety premium averaging 0.33 percent. Yet, the German Federal Finance Agency decided to cease all future issuance of these bonds in November 2023. We examine the market response to this announcement and find that neither the safety premia nor the trading conditions of these bonds have been negatively impacted. Hence, this bond market remains a rich source of information on real rates in the euro area in addition to offering investors a safe inflation-protected asset.

Suggested citation:

Christensen, Jens H. E., Sarah Mouabbi, and Caroline Paulson. 2024. “German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, yet Undervalued.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2025-03. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2025-03

About the Authors
Jens Christensen is a research advisor in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Learn more about Jens Christensen
Caroline Paulson is a research associate in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Research Bank of San Francisco.