Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco

Search results for: “feed”

  • Behind the Scenes: Building the SF Fed Data Explorer

    Erin Crust, a Research Associate from the Economic Research department, shares the story behind the development of the SF Fed Data Explorer.

  • My Family’s Story of the Mexican American Dream

    For Kylie Garcia, an event producer at the SF Fed, opportunity is a pathway paved by hard work and resilience. In celebration of Hispanic Heritage Month, she shares her family’s story of the Mexican American Dream.

  • SF Fed Launches Tool to Forecast COVID-19 Infections by County

    Using the latest data on social distancing behavior, weather, vaccinations, and confirmed COVID-19 cases per capita, our Economic Research team’s new data page forecasts changes in COVID-19 infection rates across U.S. counties. Economist Dan Wilson explains how this new tool uses recent statistics to help project future infection growth.

  • Pascal Paul

    Pascal Paul is a senior economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  • Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates in Small Open Economies

    Controlling inflation is a key concern of central bankers around the world. But how best to control inflation differs across countries according to their individual characteristics; for example, small open economies tend to import more goods as a percentage of GDP than larger, more closed, economies, such as the United States.

  • Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises

    Recovery from a recession triggered by a financial crisis is greatly influenced by the government’s fiscal position. A financial crisis puts considerable stress on the government’s budget, sometimes triggering attacks on public debt. Historical analysis shows that a private credit boom raises the odds of a financial crisis. Entering such a crisis with a swollen public debt may limit the government’s ability to respond and can result in a considerably slower recovery.

  • Why Is Inflation Low Globally?

    A hot economy eventually boosts inflation. Such is the simple wisdom of the Phillips curve. Yet inflation across developed countries has been remarkably weak since the 2008 global financial crisis, even though unemployment rates are near historical lows. What is behind this recent disconnect between inflation and unemployment? Contrasting the experiences of developed and developing economies before and after the financial crisis shows that broader factors than monetary policy are at play. Inflation has declined globally, and this trend preceded the financial crisis.

  • Mortgage Prepayments and Changing Underwriting Standards

    Despite historically low mortgage interest rates, borrower prepayments have been lower than expected over the past year. For example, a model based on prepayment data from 2000 through the beginning of 2009 predicts a prepayment rate for the first quarter of 2010 roughly twice as high as the observed rate. It can be conjectured that current low prepayment rates reflect the influence of factors specific to the housing bust, including a significant tightening of lending terms for certain borrowers, weak housing demand, and high foreclosure rates.

  • Disagreement about the Inflation Outlook

    Disagreement among economic forecasters about the future path of inflation has risen substantially since the start of the recession. The nature of this disagreement varies with the forecast time horizon, with some forecasters expecting much lower short-run inflation and others anticipating much higher long-run inflation. This variation may complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy communications strategy.

  • Update on the Economy

    This Economic Letter is adapted from several recent presentations by Robert T. Parry, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to civic and professional organizations in California.