We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions: Federal Reserve Bank of SF
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general audiences
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Recent Spike in Immigration and Easing Labor Markets
The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants. Updating the CBO estimates with recent data points shows a continuing strong inflow of undocumented migrants. Analysis linking the revised estimates for this group to labor market statistics shows that immigrants joining the workforce are likely to have modestly eased labor market tightness.
FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
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FedViews: July 18, 2024
Òscar Jordà, senior policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of July 18, 2024.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
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Snow Belt to Sun Belt Migration: End of an Era?
Internal migration has been cited as a key channel by which societies will adapt to climate change. We show in this paper that this process has already been happening in the United States. Over the course of the past 50 years, the tendency of Americans to move from the coldest places (“snow belt”), which have become warmer, to the hottest places (“sun belt”), which have become hotter, has steadily declined. In the latest full decade, 2010-2020, both county population growth and county net migration rates were essentially uncorrelated with the historical means of either extreme heat days or extreme cold days. The decline in these correlations over the past 50 years is true across counties, across commuting zones, and across states. It holds for urban and suburban counties; for rural counties the correlations have even reversed. It holds for all educational groups, with the sharpest decline in correlations for those with four or more years of college. Among age groups, the pattern is strongest for age groups 20-29 and 60-69, suggestive of climate being an especially important factor for those in life stages involving long-term location choices. Given climate change projections for coming decades of increasing extreme heat in the hottest U.S. counties and decreasing extreme cold in the coldest counties, our findings suggest the “pivoting” in the U.S. climate-migration correlation over the past 50 years is likely to continue, leading to a reversal of the 20th century snow belt to sun belt migration pattern.
Community Development Publications
Community Development Innovation Review >
The Community Development Innovation Review focuses on bridging the gap between theory and practice, from as many viewpoints as possible. The goal of this journal is to promote cross-sector dialogue around a range of emerging issues and related investments that advance economic resilience and mobility for low- and moderate-income communities.
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Fintech, Racial Equity, and an Inclusive Financial System
This issue of the Community Development Innovation Review examines the promise and pitfalls of financial technology, or fintech, for fostering racial equity and greater financial inclusion. Edited in partnership with the SF Fed’s Fintech team and Aspen Institute’s Financial Security Program, this issue brings together a broad set of voices from people working in various roles—including in technology, community development, economic inclusion, regulation, and investment—to contextualize gaps in the financial system and consider ways to address them.
View all Community Development Innovation Review Publications
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research Briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
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Assessing the Durability of COVID-Era Capacity Gains Among Community-Based Organizations: Lessons from the Emergency Rental Assistance Program
To better understand the impact of the Emergency Rental Assistance Program’s conclusion on community-based organizations and on their scope and scale of work after ERAP, this brief draws on interviews conducted with practitioners involved with nearly two dozen ERA programs across the country. These interviews help shed light on how the dwindling and, in many cases, cessation of ERAP funds is affecting organizations’ capacity along multiple dimensions as they scale back, reorient, and move on post ERAP.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
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Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Specifically, this study examines impacts of market-rate and subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections.
Banking Publications
First Glance 12L >
These quarterly reports highlight key indicators of 12th District banking conditions.
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Third Quarter 2023: Strains on Banks’ Funding and Margins Eased
The 3Q23 issue of First Glance 12L notes that the pace of net interest margin compression and nonmaturity deposit attrition eased among the District’s banks. But rising interest rates increased net unrealized losses on banks’ bond investments. Commercial real estate remained an area of focus given lending concentrations and market conditions.
Supervision in Brief >
This publication offers observations by the Head of Supervision of Financial Institution Supervision and Credit (FISC) on current banking and regulatory issues facing 12th District institutions.
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New Vice Chair Barr Talks Existing and Emerging Risks
This July, the Federal Reserve System welcomed its new Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr. Since then, the Supervision + Credit (S+C) group at the SF Fed has worked diligently with our Board colleagues to inform his agenda and priorities, which he recently delivered at The Brookings Institution.