We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general audiences
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Financial Markets, Oil Prices, and Supply-Side Risks
The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond correlation recently flipped, suggesting that the perceived source of risk to the economy has shifted towards supply shocks. Other financial correlations, such as the stock-oil correlation, also changed accordingly and thus agree with this interpretation. In line with this evidence, financial market pricing now indicates that elevated oil prices and potential inflation are prominent sources of risk.
SF FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
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SF FedViews: Labor Market in Balance but Inflation Elevated and Uncertain
Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of July 16, 2026.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
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Reaching for Duration
Using historical data on U.S. commercial bank balance sheets, we show that banks’ maturity mismatch has more than tripled since the mid-1980s, moving in close lockstep with declining interest rates and term premia. We rationalize these trends in a model of bank portfolio choice in which banks must cover operating costs out of current earnings. […]
Community Engagement and Analysis Publications
Community Development Articles>
Short-form insights on key community development topics, informed by research and engagement in the 12th District.
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Applying Federal Reserve Data to Local Financial Inclusion Efforts: A Case Study from California’s Central Valley
Local data presented by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco staff at the San Joaquin Valley Financial Empowerment convening highlighted Kings County as a regional outlier in credit insecurity, prompting partners to prioritize Bank On outreach there. The convening showed how place‑based insights and online data tools readily available from the Federal Reserve can quickly translate into targeted action to expand safe, low‑fee banking access.
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
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AI Adoption Among Small Businesses: Qualitative Insights from the Small Business Credit Survey
Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 SBCS reported using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), with applications spanning productivity, marketing, writing, visual design, customer service, analytics, and programmable machines. The brief documents use cases, barriers, and sentiments—from enthusiasm to opposition.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
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Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Specifically, this study examines impacts of market-rate and subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections.