We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general audiences
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The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium-Term Risk
Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates. The information from this statistical distribution can help measure the perceived risk of interest rates returning to the zero lower bound in the future. The risk varies over time, driven mainly by the expected level of interest rates. At longer forecast horizons, a higher risk of returning to the lower bound primarily reflects a higher amount of uncertainty. Currently, the perceived risk appears slim over the next few years but is significant at longer horizons.
SF FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
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SF FedViews: June 5, 2025
Daniel Wilson, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of June 5, 2025.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
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Incomplete Markets and Exchange Rates
We show imperfect risk-sharing within countries can reconcile the aggregate cyclicality of exchange rates in a two-country setting, i.e. the Backus-Smith puzzle, as long as exchange rates are sufficiently risky with respect to idiosyncratic states. In equilibrium, these exchange rate dynamics require that, despite a country experiencing higher consumption growth, idiosyncratic risk remains relatively elevated. […]
Community Engagement and Analysis Publications
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
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Homeownership Opportunities Beyond Single-Family: Quantifying the Current Landscape
Although homeownership is commonly portrayed as a single household living in a detached house, homeownership in the U.S. includes an array of opportunities, some of which provide more affordable entry points into owning a home.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
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Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Specifically, this study examines impacts of market-rate and subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections.