We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general
audiences
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The Impact of El Niño on the U.S. Economy
Combining historical economic and meteorological data makes it possible to estimate the economic impacts of El Niño episodes. Such estimates suggest the current El Niño episode may have already caused a small temporary bump in U.S. price levels, which is expected to resolve by the end of the year. Estimates further suggest the episode poses…
SF FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
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SF FedViews: AI and Energy Shaping the Outlook for Growth and Inflation
Sylvain Leduc, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of October 15, 2026.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
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The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata
From early 2021 through early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, with substantial heterogeneity across local economies. Using administrative microdata, we construct new measures of national and local unauthorized immigration flows and exploit exogenous variation using multiple empirical designs. Unauthorized immigrant worker flows increased local employment approximately one-for-one, with mixed evidence…
Community Engagement and Analysis Publications
Community Development Articles>
Short-form insights on key community development topics, informed by research and engagement in the 12th District.
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The Geography of ADUs and Recent Developments in Lending for Lower-Income Homeowners
ADUs are smaller, independent homes located on the same lot as an existing single‑family residence, with their own living space and separate entrance. For lower‑income homeowners, they can support economic stability. This piece examines ADU numbers across the Twelfth District’s nine western states and shares lessons from the community development field on making ADU development…
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
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AI Adoption Among Small Businesses: Qualitative Insights from the Small Business Credit Survey
Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 SBCS reported using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), with applications spanning productivity, marketing, writing, visual design, customer service, analytics, and programmable machines. The brief documents use cases, barriers, and sentiments—from enthusiasm to opposition.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
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Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in…