We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general audiences
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Firms’ Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic-Era Surge
Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of professional forecasters during the pandemic-era inflation surge and moved closer to household expectations. Analyzing firms’ survey data from 2018 to 2025 reveals three main patterns behind this shift: Businesses became more sensitive to current inflation perceptions, their longer-term expectations temporarily drifted up, and their perceptions of the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal increased. However, when inflation eventually moderated, the survey data show that firms’ inflation expectations largely returned to their characteristics from before the pandemic.
SF FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
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SF FedViews: Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook on Inflation and the Economy
Òscar Jordà, senior policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of June 4, 2026.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
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Recency Effects in Perceived Uncertainty
Firms frequently revise not only their expectations, but also how uncertain they feel about those expectations. Using the U.S. Survey of Business Uncertainty, we study perceived uncertainty about firms’ own sales and employment growth. Reported uncertainty rises after larger revisions to firms’ point forecasts, with the strongest response to the most recent revision. This recency […]
Community Engagement and Analysis Publications
Community Development Articles>
Short-form insights on key community development topics, informed by research and engagement in the 12th District.
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Applying Federal Reserve Data to Local Financial Inclusion Efforts: A Case Study from California’s Central Valley
Local data presented by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco staff at the San Joaquin Valley Financial Empowerment convening highlighted Kings County as a regional outlier in credit insecurity, prompting partners to prioritize Bank On outreach there. The convening showed how place‑based insights and online data tools readily available from the Federal Reserve can quickly translate into targeted action to expand safe, low‑fee banking access.
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
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AI Adoption Among Small Businesses: Qualitative Insights from the Small Business Credit Survey
Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 SBCS reported using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), with applications spanning productivity, marketing, writing, visual design, customer service, analytics, and programmable machines. The brief documents use cases, barriers, and sentiments—from enthusiasm to opposition.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
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Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Specifically, this study examines impacts of market-rate and subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections.