We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general audiences
-
Using Inflation Shock Patterns to Help Forecast Inflation
A new indicator—the Inflation Shock Momentum Index—can help identify emerging inflationary or disinflationary pressures in real time. The index tracks the shares of consumer spending categories that are experiencing consecutive positive or negative monthly inflation shocks, allowing detection of shifts in the underlying inflation environment. The index improves inflation forecasts at one-year to three-year horizons and responds to macroeconomic shocks in line with accepted theory. Recent index readings have fluctuated above and below zero, indicating that inflation may remain near current levels in the near to medium term.
SF FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
-
SF FedViews: Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook on Inflation and the Economy
Òscar Jordà, senior policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of June 4, 2026.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
-
Recency Effects in Perceived Uncertainty
Firms frequently revise not only their expectations, but also how uncertain they feel about those expectations. Using the U.S. Survey of Business Uncertainty, we study perceived uncertainty about firms’ own sales and employment growth. Reported uncertainty rises after larger revisions to firms’ point forecasts, with the strongest response to the most recent revision. This recency […]
Community Engagement and Analysis Publications
Community Development Articles>
Short-form insights on key community development topics, informed by research and engagement in the 12th District.
-
Applying Federal Reserve Data to Local Financial Inclusion Efforts: A Case Study from California’s Central Valley
Local data presented by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco staff at the San Joaquin Valley Financial Empowerment convening highlighted Kings County as a regional outlier in credit insecurity, prompting partners to prioritize Bank On outreach there. The convening showed how place‑based insights and online data tools readily available from the Federal Reserve can quickly translate into targeted action to expand safe, low‑fee banking access.
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
-
On-the-Job Exposure to AI Among Lower-Income Workers
To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on the job, paying particular attention to workers in lower-income households, what occupations and industries they work in, and how exposure varies across different parts of the country.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
-
Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Specifically, this study examines impacts of market-rate and subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections.