We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general audiences
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What’s Behind the Declining Trend Unemployment Rate?
The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades. Estimates after removing business cycle fluctuations show that the trend rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024. This decline reflects in part a more-educated and older workforce—that is, a shift in composition towards demographic groups with traditionally lower unemployment rates. It also reflects newer cohorts entering the labor force with lower unemployment rates. Projections suggest that future demographic changes will gradually lower trend unemployment about 0.4 percentage point further over the next 20 years.
SF FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
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SF FedViews: Labor Market in Balance but Inflation Elevated and Uncertain
Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of July 16, 2026.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
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A Dual Mandate Can Support Price Stability
Since employment dynamics are persistent, a central bank’s dual mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability naturally generates history dependence in monetary policy. This history dependence under a dual mandate flattens the reduced-form Phillips curve, reduces the volatility of inflation in response to demand shocks, and improves outcomes at the zero lower bound. Moreover, we show that a dual mandate can be observationally equivalent to average inflation targeting following a demand shock. However, this equivalence breaks down in the presence of supply shocks. We first illustrate these findings analytically and then examine their quantitative importance in a model with nominal rigidities and labor search frictions calibrated to match U.S. business-cycle moments. An employment mandate can naturally provide the benefits associated with history-dependent policy frameworks.
Community Engagement and Analysis Publications
Community Development Articles>
Short-form insights on key community development topics, informed by research and engagement in the 12th District.
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Applying Federal Reserve Data to Local Financial Inclusion Efforts: A Case Study from California’s Central Valley
Local data presented by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco staff at the San Joaquin Valley Financial Empowerment convening highlighted Kings County as a regional outlier in credit insecurity, prompting partners to prioritize Bank On outreach there. The convening showed how place‑based insights and online data tools readily available from the Federal Reserve can quickly translate into targeted action to expand safe, low‑fee banking access.
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
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AI Adoption Among Small Businesses: Qualitative Insights from the Small Business Credit Survey
Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 SBCS reported using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), with applications spanning productivity, marketing, writing, visual design, customer service, analytics, and programmable machines. The brief documents use cases, barriers, and sentiments—from enthusiasm to opposition.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
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Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Specifically, this study examines impacts of market-rate and subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections.