We produce a wide range of publications that share the latest data, analysis, and insights from various teams at the SF Fed. Our publications help inform and strengthen public understanding of economic issues and its impact on people and communities.
Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions: Federal Reserve Bank of SF
Economic Research Publications
FRBSF Economic Letter >
Economic analysis for general audiences
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How Much Has the Cooling Economy Reduced Inflation?
Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to unemployed workers and of vacancies to effective job seekers—are particularly informative in determining excess demand’s impact on recent inflation. The measures suggest that declines in excess demand pushed inflation down almost three-quarters of a percentage point over the past two years. However, elevated demand continued to contribute 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point to inflation as of September 2024.
FedViews >
Analysis of current economic developments and the outlook
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FedViews: October 24, 2024
Sylvain Leduc, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of October 24, 2024.
Working Papers >
The latest in economic research
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The Crowding-In Effects of Local Government Debt in China
We study how changes in the composition of Chinese local government debt influenced bank risk taking, credit allocation, and local productivity. Using confidential loan-level data and a difference-in-difference identification approach, we show that a debt-to-bond swap program for local governments implemented in 2015 significantly increased bank risk taking through a risk-weighting channel under Basel III capital regulations. The debt swap program converted bank holdings of municipal corporate debt to local government bonds, reducing banks’ risk-weighted assets. Banks responded by lowering credit spreads on loans to privately owned firms (POEs) relative to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with significantly larger reductions in POE credit spreads in provinces with more outstanding government debt. Furthermore, the credit reallocation toward more productive private firms—a crowding in effect of the debt swap—significantly raised local productivity.
Community Development Publications
Community Development Innovation Review >
The Community Development Innovation Review focuses on bridging the gap between theory and practice, from as many viewpoints as possible. The goal of this journal is to promote cross-sector dialogue around a range of emerging issues and related investments that advance economic resilience and mobility for low- and moderate-income communities.
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Fintech, Racial Equity, and an Inclusive Financial System
This issue of the Community Development Innovation Review examines the promise and pitfalls of financial technology, or fintech, for fostering racial equity and greater financial inclusion. Edited in partnership with the SF Fed’s Fintech team and Aspen Institute’s Financial Security Program, this issue brings together a broad set of voices from people working in various roles—including in technology, community development, economic inclusion, regulation, and investment—to contextualize gaps in the financial system and consider ways to address them.
View all Community Development Innovation Review Publications
Community Development Research Briefs >
Research Briefs feature data and commentary on community development trends and issues.
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Homeownership Opportunities Beyond Single-Family: Quantifying the Current Landscape
Although homeownership is commonly portrayed as a single household living in a detached house, homeownership in the U.S. includes an array of opportunities, some of which provide more affordable entry points into owning a home.
Community Development Working Papers >
Working papers provide in-depth analysis of emerging community development issues from practitioners and scholars.
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Housing Market Interventions and Residential Mobility in the San Francisco Bay Area
Limited evaluation research exists on which housing solutions are most effective in stabilizing communities so that those who wish to stay are able to do so in the midst of an influx of newcomers. This study seeks to fill this gap by assessing patterns of individual and household mobility related to specific housing interventions in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area. Specifically, this study examines impacts of market-rate and subsidized development, and tenant protections, including rent stabilization and just cause for evictions protections.
Banking Publications
First Glance 12L >
These quarterly reports highlight key indicators of 12th District banking conditions.
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Third Quarter 2023: Strains on Banks’ Funding and Margins Eased
The 3Q23 issue of First Glance 12L notes that the pace of net interest margin compression and nonmaturity deposit attrition eased among the District’s banks. But rising interest rates increased net unrealized losses on banks’ bond investments. Commercial real estate remained an area of focus given lending concentrations and market conditions.
Supervision in Brief >
This publication offers observations by the Head of Supervision of Financial Institution Supervision and Credit (FISC) on current banking and regulatory issues facing 12th District institutions.
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New Vice Chair Barr Talks Existing and Emerging Risks
This July, the Federal Reserve System welcomed its new Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr. Since then, the Supervision + Credit (S+C) group at the SF Fed has worked diligently with our Board colleagues to inform his agenda and priorities, which he recently delivered at The Brookings Institution.