ETC: Economic Trends & Conditions

Several temporary factors helped pushed down first-quarter GDP growth. However, the winding down of these temporary factors should allow GDP growth to improve in the third quarter. Conditions continue to fare moderately worse in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District than in the nation as a whole, with unemployment rates in many District states remaining well above the national unemployment rate. Although, District unemployment rates have shown considerable declines in recent months.

Although recent economic news has been disappointing, much of the first-quarter weakness appears to reflect transitory factors, including harsh winter weather at the start of the year. The underlying pace of economic recovery appears intact and we expect real GDP to increase 3½ to 4% over the next year.

Data suggest that the economy is gradually improving, albeit with a bit less momentum than previously projected. Furthermore, conditions continue to fare moderately worse in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District than in the nation as a whole, with unemployment rates in many District states remaining well above the national unemployment rate.

Economic Trends & Conditions, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, provides a monthly summary of employment and housing data at both the national and district levels. The report addresses topics such as GDP, inflation, the Beige Book, lending activity, and credit activity.